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Posts cite a small increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover to claim climate change is a scam – Climate Fact Checks
CLAIM
A record increase in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere proves that global warming is not happening and climate change is a scam.
FACT
The overall snow cover extent (SCE) over the Northern Hemisphere shows a declining trend. A short-term increase in SCE during mid-November 2022 is being misleadingly used as part of the climate change denial narrative.
WHAT THEY CLAIM
“Snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere reached the HIGHEST level since measurements began in 1967 and are currently ABOVE the 56 year mean. But you won’t hear that on the news,” mentioned a Twitter post with the “#climatescam” implying that recent recording of an increase in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere proves that global warming is not happening and climate change is a scam. We came across multiple similar claims being made in various other posts.
WHAT WE FOUND
The graph cited in the Twitter post is from NOAA/Rutgers Global Snow Lab which shows the Snow Cover Extent (SEC) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for a particular week in mid-November. As per the graph, the increasing trend in SEC is not consistent over a long period. The recently updated graph issued by Rutgers Global Snow Lab clearly exhibits a drop towards the end of November.
(Source: WMO’s Global Cryosphere Watch page)
Why November Hike in NH’s SEC is not considered a relevant change??
According to the definition of IPCC, Climate change refers to “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.” As per the definition, the weekly or yearly change in SEC over NH is not consistent enough to dismiss global warming.
According to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, the NH’s snow cover extent has decreased since the mid-1960s but has significant year-to-year variability. Annual snow cover extent (SCE) over Northern Hemisphere (NH) lands averaged 24.3 million sq. km in 2021 which is 0.6 million sq. km less than 1991-2020 mean (Northern Hemisphere Continental Snow Cover Extent: 2021 Update by David A. Robinson).
NH’s SEC LONG-TERM TREND (Source)
The NH’S SCE for November 2022 was 37.75 million square kilometers, which is 1.04 million square miles above the 1991-2020 average whereas, in October 2022, SEC was 18.66 million square kilometers, which is 200,000 square miles below the 1991-2020 average. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for October and November 2021 was slightly above average at 18.14 (smallest cover since 2011) and 35.45 (smallest cover since 2013) million square km respectively. Therefore year to year and month to variability exists and these are considered climate variability as the weather parameters are linked by global and regional scale phenomenon. If these changes are persistent for a longer period (decade or more), then they can be considered.
Significant Global Events in November 2022
Since 1880, the temperature of the Earth has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade, but the pace of warming has increased by more than twice that, to 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981. According to National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), this year recorded the fifth-warmest September-November period after 2016 and 2018 and the sea ice of the Arctic and Antarctic ranked among the 10 lowest on record.
According to NOAA data and analysis by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the Northern Hemisphere’s snow cover extent in November was 1.04 million square miles which is greater than the average for the period between 1991 and 2020. This is the fourth-highest snow cover extent on record for the Northern Hemisphere. The SEC was more prominent over North America (15.25 million square kilometers), Greenland (5.89 million square miles), and Eurasia (1.38 million square kilometers).
NOVEMBER 2022 GLOBAL SIGNIFICANT EVENT MAP (Source)
How global warming influences NH’s SCE??
The snow cover over the NH is altered by the warming temperature which results in a reduction of precipitation falling as snow and its duration except in high-elevation regions, the snow volumes have increased due to an increase in winter precipitation. According to Serreze et al. 2009, “A reduction in the snow cover, and thus in surface albedo, may enhance the warming signal because more energy is absorbed in the surface. This is a positive feedback to global warming in regions with a seasonal snow cover which partially explains the accelerated warming over the Northern Hemisphere”.
(with inputs from Suja Mary James)
